I attended a talk last Friday by Ross Garnaut, sponsored by CEDA, the Committe for Economic Development of Australia. The audience was made up of a large cross-section of CEOs, business analysts, insurance brokers, accountants, corporate sustainability advisers, general managers, media representatives, environmental group spokesperson’s, energy traders, resource sector barons, carbon neutral entrepreneurs and a particular past Prime Minister with a flock of hair so white, you’d swear it had been enhanced in Photoshop.
Garnaut only had an hour. But what he summarized and how he answered the following questions from an impassioned, curious floor, was utterly compelling. As Carl offered to readers of Street Editors in a previous post, the report is a lengthy document. At 600pages it is the most comprehensive study done to date, incorporating the most sophisticated modeling scenarios ever undertaken, to indicate alternative futures extending out to the end of this century. To put in perspective, it goes beyond The Stern Report and anything the IPCC has published thus far. This places Australia at the leading edge of having the knowledge to act, adapt and prosper. The following is a summary of points and the chapters you can read to learn more.
Garnaut is excited about climate change. The guy has been working on this report for 18 months and you would think that a man of his experience, has done the right research and is at least Australia’s eminent source of wisdom on this issue. Perhaps strategically, his experience in economics was deemed critical to report on the most achievable scenarios Australia should aim for in mitigating climate change. He is the first to gloat about Australia’s abundance in human resources, sequestration capabilities and renewable energy sources, and also famously now, the first to conclude in his report that “the failure of our generation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time”.
Garnaut’s report aims to outline two alternative pathways to a low emissions economy that Australia can take, based on whether we aim to limit carbon dioxide compounds to either 450ppm (parts per million i.e 1 drop of water in a 50L bucket) or 550ppm. Importantly, and controversially to some, Garnaut also recommends that Australia must only act as part of an international agreement. His rational for this latter point, is two fold.
1. If we act alone, and in doing so our economy is adversely affected, it does not send a positive message to other countries.
2. Only with a coordinated international effort, can we as a species avert catastrophic consequences.
Of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions compared to 2000 levels, to either 450ppm or 550ppm requires the following targets:
- 450ppm: A 25% reduction by 2020 and 90% reduction by 2050
- 550ppm: A 20% reduction by 2020 and an 80% reduction by 2050%
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Australian incomes are projected to increase three-fold by the end of the century. According to the Report’s modeling, if we were to take no action by 2050, incomes would have increased by 66%. If we are however to reduce them by 90% as required to limit carbon dioxide compounds to 450ppm, our incomes would have increased by 54%. A difference of 12%. I’ve heard in other commentary, that this difference represents a difference of two years before incomes with mitigation equal incomes without mitigation. But even more importantly, is that without mitigation, in the second half of this century, we are likely to endure events that would harm our economy and reduce incomes to a level below projected incomes in the second half of this century compared to incomes with mitigation. In other words, if we act now, we save later. In economic terms, we would ‘buy our financial security’. A buzz word indeed in today’s media. Read Chapter 15 for more information.
Also of note, is that even limiting carbon dioxide compounds to 450ppm, Australia’s wetland, and sub-tropic species of birds, are threatened with extinction. The impacts on our ecology between 450ppm and 550ppm are so devastating as to be largely unthinkable. Tony Mohr, Climate Change Manager from the Australian Conservation Foundation, even suggested that already carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are already above 450ppm. And hence the importance for strong leadership. An impassioned member of Australia’s Youth Climate Coalition, rose to bravely demand why greater cuts were not recommended. And with the wisdom of a grandfather, Garnaut responded that his task was to recommend the most realistic pathway that Australia should aim for, rather than ‘wishing’ for unrealistic targets and not achieving anything. A sobering point of view.
Through humble graphs, Garnaut went on to illustrate how over the next 92 years, our reliance on coal fired electricity, fuel and meat, amongst other goods and services would decline, as the rate of renewable energy, and electric transport – spurred on by an immense investment in innovation and technology, would increase. Chapters 19-22 are the relevant pages on transformation.
For information on the framework for an international agreement, see Chapters 8,9 and 10.
To close the event, Bob Hawke rose (and nearly fell off the stairs he ascended), to unleash his rumble of a voice and share that one of the great marvels of the ageing process (himself approaching 80) is the change you witness from one period unto the next. I wonder what I will have done, and what I will be witnessing when my hair is as white as his.
It occurred to me today, that I have no idea what Climate Change actually means. I don’t know how much rising food prices will affect my pocket, I don’t know what a rise in two or three degrees in temperature will feel like, I don’t know what melting ice caps will mean for my day-to-day existence. Which is why, for the majority of people, it’s a hard reality to grasp. Carl, I can read Garnaut’s report, but unless the Government, Industry and I choose to act due to being informed and inspired, the report is nothing but a crystal ball.
